March 19, 2007 | Comments Off
Here are the rest of the pitchers. Any of these guys can be much better than projected – or much worse.
|36. Barry Zito||SF||29.55|
|37. Derek Lowe||LAD||29.45|
|38. Curt Schilling||Bos||28.77|
|39. Jose Contreras||CWS||28.52|
|40. Ervin Santana||LAA||27.68|
|41. Kevin Millwood||Tex||27.67|
|42. Randy Johnson||Ari||27.27|
|43. A. J. Burnett||Tor||27.12|
|44. Greg Maddux||SD||26.97|
|45. Anthony Reyes||StL||26.92|
|46. Orlando Hernandez||NYM||26.78|
|47. Tom Glavine||NYM||26.72|
|48. Justin Verlander||Det||26.69|
|49. Aaron Harang||Cin||26.40|
|50. Dave Bush||Mil||26.23|
|51. Chris Capuano||Mil||26.17|
|52. Cliff Lee||Cle||26.10|
|53. Brad Penny||LAD||25.87|
|54. Javier Vazquez||CWS||25.82|
|55. Scott Olsen||Fla||25.11|
|56. Chien-Ming Wang||NYY||25.08|
|57. Daniel Cabrera||Bal||24.61|
|58. Freddy Garcia||Phi||24.53|
|59. John Maine||NYM||24.23|
|60. Kenny Rogers||Det||23.93|
|61. Noah Lowry||SF||23.90|
|62. Jon Garland||CWS||23.86|
|63. Jake Westbrook||Cle||23.83|
|64. Nate Robertson||Det||23.56|
|65. Tim Hudson||Atl||23.27|
|66. Mark Prior||ChC||23.06|
|67. Ian Snell||Pit||23.04|
|68. Oliver Perez||NYM||23.02|
|69. Mark Buehrle||CWS||22.85|
|70. Jason Jennings||Hou||22.72|
|71. Zach Duke||Pit||22.58|
|72. Jarrod Washburn||Sea||21.94|
|73. Doug Davis||Ari||21.92|
|74. Jon Lieber||Phi||21.82|
|75. Ted Lilly||Tor||21.34|
|76. Brandon McCarthy||Tex||21.02|
|77. Tim Wakefield||Bos||20.96|
|78. Esteban Loiza||Oak||20.71|
|79. Jeremy Sowers||Cle||20.64|
|80. Chad Billingsly||LAD||19.98|
|81. Paul Byrd||Cle||19.86|
|82. Jeff Weaver||Sea||19.75|
|83. Matt Morris||SF||19.66|
|84. Woody Williams||Hou||19.00|
|85. Bartolo Colon||LAA||17.60|
|86. Mike Hampton||Atl||16.68|
First, a look at two old pros who are at the top of the fifth tier. Schilling is always dangerous, but I think we have seen the best of him. With a strong lineup at his back he can still win 15+ games, but I can’t see him as being any more than middling in all the other fantasy categories. But I think he has greater upside than Randy Johnson. Sure Johnson moves back into the National League, but he also goes back to a more hitter friendly park surrounded by a lineup that, while improved, is not nearly as stacked as the one that carried his wrinkled carcass to 17 wins last season. Add to that persistent back pains, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll be the top 10 pitcher he once was, or anywhere close.
Let’s look, then, at the pitchers who have the most upside potential. Anthony Reyes is building a solid case to be the Cardinals number two pitcher thus far this Spring. He struggled a bit at times in his rookie season, but I expect him to put up solid if not spectacular numbers. Like most pitchers, he should fully bloom by his third season, and is thus a good keeper. But he should have decent value even this year.
David Bush is also quietly building up his creds to be a number two starter. If he is able to keep his ERA under four, his WHIP and K numbers will provide good value.
Oliver Perez will probably wind up the year with a 4.50 ERA or higher, and he’ll walk enough batters to keep his WHIP in the 1.4 zone. But he’ll strike out nearly one per inning, and he should find a way to at least 13 or 14 wins. He will tantalize you with the occasional brilliant performance, and then agonize you with a miserable one every third time out as well. He is unlikely to return to 2004 form, but he should start to gain control as the year progresses and "The Jacket" does his work. He’s worth the $1 or $2 investment because he could provide $15 value – sometimes.
Ervin Santana also has an opportunity to step up while Colon is on the DL (and Colon is listed as low as he is because there’s no way of guaranteeing he’ll get much more than 15 starts when all is said and done). He has shown flashes of brilliance, and could be a bargain late in the draft, if he makes it that far.
There are also two pitchers who most definitely won’t be making their way onto the rubber until the midway point of the season. Roger Clemens will wind up either back in Houston or with the Yankees. I have a bad feeling he’ll be back with the Evil Empre this time around. He’ll be good for his usual spectacular numbers, and this time he’ll have the run support to provide him wins.
Pedro Martinez will be back in June. Or July. Or August. Or never. Who knows when and if he’s coming back, or if he’ll be any good.
Is either guy worth taking a gamble on? Clemens might go for $10 in some mixed league auctions. Pedro probably won’t go as high. I’d rather gamble a buck or two on Pedro than ten on Clemens, even though Clemens is the surer thing. In theory, it would be smart to draft a guy of Clemens’ stature and stash him away for a few months, and then you’d have him ready for the stretch guy. But you’re investing money on a guy who will be a black hole statistically for three months. That’s money that could go to a decent third or fourth starter that at least will be providing you something in the interim. By the time Clemens is ready to start it’ll be the height of the trading season. If you want to bolster your staff, make a trade. But don’t waste money on a guy who will provide you absolutely nothing for three months. To me, that’s just a waste. However, one or two bucks spent on Pedro is nothing in the grand scheme of things. You can grab any old fifth starter at that price, put Pedro on the bench, and then take the gamble come July.