Mar
4
Major League Baseball Preview: NL East - Arizona Diamondbacks
March 4, 2008 |
I’m mixing up things and going out west for my next batch of previews. To tell the truth, as I was uncertain of which team I was going to write about - because I am not sure which team will win the west. For me it’s down to the Diamondbacks and Dodgers - and I guess went with the team that is higher in the alphabet.
This is a dangerous pick in one regard. The Diamonbacks far exceeded their pythagorean record last season. In fact, they should have had a losing record according to their run-differential. Teams like that tend to bounce back pretty far the following season. Here I am betting that the young guys take a step up and the Danny Haren trade will give them enough of a boost so that they can repeat as division champs, this time with a pythag record that looks a little more like their actual record.
Enhanced Production: OF) Chris Young, 3B) Mark Reynolds, OF) Stephen Drew, OF) Justin Upton, P) Danny Haren
So I am obviously banking on all the rookies to have better second seasons. In Young’s case, he put together a near 30-30 season in his rookie season, and probably would have garnered more attention were it not for a paltry batting average and a relatively low RBI total (68) for a guy who hit 30+ homers. In the latter case, we can chalk that up to him hitting leadoff in a lineup that had a pretty miserable bottom half. I expect Young to up the average and become a true fantasy - and real baseball - stud.
Danny Haren put together an amazing first half, but faltered down the stretch. I don’t think he is quite in the class of the other two big-name pitchers that got dealt this off-season - Santana and Bedard - but he is a legitimate number two behind Brandon Webb, something the Diamondbacks lacked last season.
Slightly enhanced production: 1B) Conor Jackson, C) Chris Snyder, P) Micah Owings
Jackson split a lot of time last season, but this season he should see his at-bats go up, which means so will his stats. It looks like he’s hitting cleanup behind Young, Orlando Hudson, and Eric Byrnes, so he should have plenty of RBI opportunities.
Micah Owings faired better with his bat than with his arm at times last season. He’s not overpowering, but he should be a fairly good third or fourth starter.
Slightly diminished production: OF) Eric Byrnes, 2B) Orlando Hudson, P) Brandon Webb, P) Randy Johnson, P) Doug Davis, The bullpen
Byrnes was an absolute fantasy stud a year ago, showing good power and surprising speed. It was a career year that he will never duplicate. Orlando Hudson also had a career year and emerged as one of the top second basemen in the league - which might be considered damning with faint praise. I don’t expect him to take as severe a step back as Bynres, but I also don’t expect him quite to repeat his performance from a year ago. And I think Webb declines, but just by a tick - again, he will easily be an All-Star and top-line starter.
Randy Johnson actually pitched amazingly well - when healthy. At 44 years of age and still not completely healed, you really can’t expect that much out of Johnson, though he should still be able to provide 20 or so decent starts for the Diamonbacks, which will be a much needed boost out of the back of their rotation. Doug Davis performed admirably enough for the division champs, but this being an even-numbered year, I would expect a down-year for Davis.
The bullpen was the reason the Diamondbacks won the division a year ago, and it is the reason this year that I am hesitant to pick them to repeat. The loss of Jose Valverde means that one of their reliable set-up guys is going to have to be a closer, and I don’t think they have added anyone to replace those lost middle-innings. Moreover, instead of going with Tony Pena, the Diamondbacks look like they are going to rely on Brandon Lyon to close out games. Personally I would have gone with Pena, but maybe that’s just because I could have kept him in my fantasy league as a cheap closer. Overall, I can easily see the pen struggling a little more this year. The addition of Danny Haren, however, could mitigate any bullpen weaknesses.
Overall assessment: They overachieved a year ago, but they look like a team that should legitimately put together a division-winning season. Which of course means they will underperform their pythag by ten games.
Comments
1 Comment so far
The MLB is looking pretty similar to last year at the start. I can’t really see who will be the most dominant yet. It will be interesting to see how everyone finishes up.