Mar

10

That Illinois election and what it portends for November

March 10, 2008 |

Bill Kristol:  PANIC!

This Democratic pickup suggests that, for now, we’re in an electoral environment more like 2006 than 2004. Foster’s eight-percentage-point improvement on John Kerry’s 2004 performance in the district mirrors the general shift in the electorate from 2004, when Bush won and the Republicans held Congress, to 2006, when the Democrats took over Congress and ran on average about eight points ahead of the G.O.P. Most surveys have shown the Democrats retaining that sizable advantage over the last 16 months. Saturday’s special election would appear to confirm these polls.

John Harwood:  Panic - if you’re a Democrat.

But now the threat of stalemate, vituperation and disillusionment hangs over a contest structured to declare a verdict a month ago. Potential fallout could imperil Democratic hopes for both the presidency and larger Congressional majorities.

“I’m very concerned,” said Representative Mark Udall of Colorado, who needs Democrats in his state to unite behind his bid for the Senate seat held by Wayne Allard, a Republican who is retiring. Mr. Udall warned that unity “could be a real challenge, especially as this thing grows more fierce.”

Harwood doesn’t actually address the Illinois special election, but his column suggests that there is reason for Republicans to be cautiously optimistic, and for Democrats to worry.  As the nomination battle between Hillary and Obama drags on, it will negatively impact the races lower down in the pecking order.  And the longer this drags on, the more it distracts from other priorities.

A prolonged fight poses special risks to the party’s drive to build a working majority in the Senate. Frenetic fund-raising by the Clinton and Obama campaigns, which collected $90 million in February alone, diminishes the pool of cash available to Senate candidates.

A bitter end to the nomination fight could strain party unity in states like New Hampshire, Minnesota and New Mexico, which, like Colorado, offer prime opportunities for Democratic gains. Disaffection among African-Americans could threaten the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up for re-election, Senator Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana.

Kristol contends that the Democratic brawl  for the presidential nomination will not help Republicans because this “battle is personal, not ideological,” and Democrats are just going to unite around whoever winds up being the nominee.  Perhaps, but Harwood’s point about the races down ballot is a valid one.  A big nomination fight is going to be a distraction for the party - probably not a fatal one, but one which will give the Republicans an opening to defend those vital seats that are now up for grabs.

There’s also some question about how applicable the Illinois special election results are to the nation.  As a couple of Illinois readers pointed out in the comments of my previous post, Republicans were done in by a combination of general stupidity and childishness.  Then again, I am not hopeful that the local GOP in other states will not similarly self-immolate.  Here in Maryland we’re witnessing a similar situation occur, only it’s the moderate defeated incumbent who is threatening to withhold support for the conservative nominee in the 2nd District Congressional race.  It’s not just conservatives who threaten to take their ball and go home upon defeat.

As it stands now, it seems more than likely that we are going to have a Republican win the White House, while the Democrats win bigger majorities in Congress.  Welcome back to the 1950s.


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